US investors are more bullish over the economic outlook, according to UBS Global Asset Management forums in Europe and the US to discuss possible economic scenarios over the next 12 months. In general, forum participants think that a “risk-on” atmosphere will continue, but with concerns tail risks such as the Eurozone crisis. Only around a fifth of the forum attendees agreed with a bearish outlook with a sharp slowdown in growth. In this case, as well as slow or negative growth Europe, aggressive monetary policy is not enough to offset weakening demand in Japan and any deceleration in the Chinese economy.
Looking at the results and conclusions from the economic forums, UBS head of global investment Curt Custard, commented: “It’s remarkable how US-based investors are so much more bullish than European counterparts. The regional split seems to matter even more than the traditional different between stock and bond investors. Even fixed income investors – not always the most bullish group – in the US are far more optimistic about the world as a whole than equity investors based in London other parts of Europe.” And Bruno Bertocci, global equity strategist, said: “We’re quite bullish on US economy, especially as the housing market continues to recover, which could create jobs and lift consumer sentiment. We’re less positive on the European economy, but there could be value in export-driven companies there – especially those that export primarily to the much- US and China markets.”